Had a blog I wrote for the University of Northampton picked up by The Huffington Post.
You can see it here:
— Huffington Post UK (@HuffPostUK) March 17, 2017
Had a blog I wrote for the University of Northampton picked up by The Huffington Post.
You can see it here:
— Huffington Post UK (@HuffPostUK) March 17, 2017
It has become something of a habit for me to post a few New Year’s predictions for the coming 12 months.
So, what is ahead for 2017?
1.TOO. MUCH. VIDEO.
There is a glut of terrible video available online.
But too much of it is just rubbish.
Poorly produced and with little thought given to user experience, much online video exists merely to serve terrible 30-second pre-roll ads.
There are honourable exceptions but they are few and far between.
Even YouTubers are seeing a drop off in views.
Supply outstripping demand also showed up as an issue in this year’s Reuters Institute Digital Report.
The top reason for not watching a video – “I find reading quicker and more convenient”. Obviously.
But this isn’t about users, this is about producers and publishers.
They want eyeballs on content and are prepared to throw out any old crap in order to grow monthly streams.
And the worst, absolute worst, examples of this can be seen on Facebook Live.
Journalists have flocked to make live videos watched by an audience so small it is effectively nobody and have turned out the most godawful tripe along the way.
Even broadcasters, for whom there is absolutely no excuse, have managed to create amateurish, boring, pointless live content.
Please, all of you, stop it now before it is too late.
Live social video is an incredible tool – some of the stories being told are revelatory and revolutionary.
But stop turning out pointless lives for a few dozen people.
If you didn’t put it in your main story, what makes you think anyone wants to see the rubbish left on the cutting room floor?
So, here’s the prediction.
Over-supply will cause video CPMs to crash, forcing publishers to make tough decisions about whether to concentrate on quality or quantity.
Most will continue to put out rubbish for increasingly poor returns.
But smart publishers will focus on building dedicated audiences with targeted high quality content with a long tail.
2. Facebook grows up
Fake news and how to tackle it is a hot topic at the moment.
The performance of fake stories in the final weeks of the U.S. Presidential election has put the issue front and centre.
There has been a lot of talk about the importance of more fact-checking, more on the ground reporting, less comment and fewer paid talking heads.
That’s all well and good – much of it is a welcome recommitment to core journalistic values.
But the essential problem is that the distribution method of choice – Facebook – doesn’t feel it has any duties to its news consumers.
Mark Zuckerberg has made it clear that he thinks Facebook is a tech company, not a media one.
That may be true, up to a point.
But in the end, if users lose trust in material they see on Facebook then it is Facebook that will suffer.
That means the company is going to have to start taking its responsibilities to users more seriously.
And draining the swamp of fake stories, propaganda, misinformation and disinformation is a good place to start.
So, here’s the prediction – Facebook will hire editors to improve its fact-checking and act to cut back the wave of fake stories as the start of a process of acknowledging its position as a world leading mass-media company.
3. AI in the newsroom
Smart newsroom products are coming.
That will continue.
But we will also see more use of machine learning in newsgathering and production too.
During the past 12 months I have been providing some advice to a Silicon Valley startup looking at how AI can be implemented in the newsroom.
UGC verification and social newsgathering are obvious places to start, using machine learning to parse huge amounts of data.
It doesn’t mean all of us journalists are going to be replaced by robots.
At least, not yet.
But 2017 will start to see more use of automated and smart products in the production of news, freeing reporters to work on adding value to the basic commodity of information.
4. Peer to peer becomes a peer
Snapchat has become the latest social media platform for journalists to embrace.
But it has really only been publishers with heavy footprints in the U.S. and UK that have seen big returns.
That is set to change in the coming year.
As Twitter struggles with open messaging, expect peer-to-peer and closed group chat to grow faster.
And news publishers will want a slice of the pie.
I ran a number of strategy sessions for digital publishers across Africa and southern Asia during the summer.
It was striking how many of them thought WhatsApp with its huge install base was a potential audience driver.
They won’t be alone.
In 2017 expect to see more and more publishers experiment with peer-to-peer and personalised news to phones.
5. What is already hard just gets tougher
2016 was a great year for news reporting.
Taken in the round, audiences have never been larger, we had unmatched international reach, and stories of weight and importance.
But the business of news continues to get harder.
It has become clearer that a business strategy based on scale cannot deliver financial security.
And we’ve all had to get used to the guilt-tripping begging notes asking for more money.
As the impact of Brexit decelerates the British economy, trying to make a media business sustainable via free content and advertising at scale is going to become more difficult.
Smart publishers have already added other revenue streams to their business strategies.
2017 is going to be a year of hard decisions that have already been deferred too long.
More publishers will embrace paywalls, cutting costs through reduced editorial staff, and the decision point for newspapers on when to stop the presses will inch closer.
How bad this gets will depend on the scale of Brexit’s economic shock.
If it triggers a full-blown recession, Shane Smith’s oft-quoted but never quite materialised bloodbath will come to pass.
Publishers can future-proof themselves if they embrace solid business plans with diversified revenue streams, and produce content audiences value enough to pay for.
Otherwise they risk being cartwheel makers in the age of the motorcar.
Five predictions for the coming year – let’s see if my track record for accuracy shows any sign of improvement in 12 months’ time.
It is a big job with responsibility for news and current affairs across multiple platforms.
She moves to Sky at a time of considerable change. Many of the old guard are moving on. Not just on-air talent such as Jeremy Thompson and Eammon Holmes but some of the most experienced backroom staff too.
Head of News, John Ryley, is clearly preparing for a future of on-demand digital news as well as a live streamed channel – perhaps no longer delivered on TV nor based in a studio.
Professor Richard Sambrook from Cardiff University has written persuasively about 24-hour rolling news being a product of newsgathering technology that now looks outdated. Even the most traditional 24-hour channels, such as Al Jazeera, are considering what post-TV news looks like.
As 24-hour news veteran, I still retain an affection for the form. But there’s no doubt that it cannot compete with the immediacy of digital news, even if there is still value in a live stream of content. It is hard to gear up to rolling coverage if you lack the platform and resources to produce it.
So I will wait with interest to see what Nicolotti’s Sky News will become – how she’ll balance innovation with maintenance of the existing product. And hopefully she’ll kill off the ruddy awful “The Pledge“.
I was on BBC Northampton this morning talking to Helen Blaby about the decision to take BBC3 online only.
I called it what it is: a budget saving decision dressed up as innovation.
You can listen here – starts at about 1h 10
What does the coming year hold for the media and what will the impact be on news and journalism?
2015 was a year of enormous change, and there’s no reason to expect 2016 to be any different. So, here are five trends I think will define the next 12 months.
1. Ad-blockers will go mainstream
The current status quo for digital advertising in media cannot continue.
Advertising is too intrusive. Splash screens, auto-playing video, and ads that scroll the screen are ruining the user experience.
On a desk-top this can be annoying but for mobile users it can destroy the user’s relationship with the publisher.
I’ve lost count of the number of times I have left an Independent article without reading it on my iPhone because the splash screen can’t be easily removed.
And now I don’t bother reading them at all.
This is no longer a niche experience – mobile is how people consume digital content. If your mobile experience is poor, you will lose audience.
The uptake in ad blockers has increased during the past couple of years. Early adopters have been using them to tailor their internet experience. 2016 will be the year their usage goes mainstream and the impact for publishers will be immense.
Business plans at almost all major publishers are based on delivering eyeballs to ads – even at those who also have a subscription strategy.
If the relationship between content and advertising breaks, then a new settlement will have to be found. Either by denying access to users of ad blockers, finding new forms of advertorial, or by publishers finding a way to manage their advertising in a way that is meaningful and useful for users.
If they can’t they risk being swept away.
2. A choice to make: destination vs distribution
The content business is going to get a lot tougher in 2016.
The watchword of 2015 has been scale. Those that have it, want to retain it. Those that don’t, want to get it.
As the content bubble continues to deflate some publishers will go to the wall, others will sell up. Consolidation will be a key factor in 2016.
But the key decision for publishers will be whether or not to pursue a destination or distribution strategy.
Here’s the thing: when I talk to students about where they get their news, they invariably say from Twitter or Facebook. Of course, when you dig into this they actually get it from a publisher who is using social media to disseminate their content. But users don’t necessarily distinguish between the publisher and the distributor.
Brand and brand values don’t appear to survive the transition to social media. And that means users treat all information as being of equivalent value.
Look at the rise of fake news sites that publish stories simply to get eyeballs to their sites – how often are people taken in by them? Even journalism students, who should know better, are sometimes fooled.
Publishers have to decide where they want to focus their attention – destination or distribution?
The received wisdom of the past few years has been to emphasise the importance of being where your audience is.
But Netflix didn’t build its business on YouTube.
Why should publishers, so keen to take up Facebook Instants, build their business on other people’s platforms? Give up your brand, give up your revenue streams, give up your platforms, and you give up your business.
3. Innovation will move to the heart of the newsroom
All of us who’ve worked in jobs where we’ve tried to shake-up the existing way of doing things have encountered the same issues. Resistance to change, a culture that demands instant results driven by delivery to daily deadlines, a veneration of tradition at the expense of experimentation.
That has to change and I think newsroom managers will have to bite the bullet in 2016 and create bespoke innovation units.
Journalism and journalists will survive but if the media businesses of today want to have a future they need to embrace innovation as a process rather than always trying to copy ideas from others.
And that means experimenting with everything. Cool stuff can be done with virtual reality, 360° video, and automation. And who knows what else is around the corner? Who would have predicted in the first internet boom that mobile would be key technology of the future? The key question is how can these things be turned into innovative systems that will deliver consistently for users in the future?
If publishers take a structured and strategic approach to this, (experimenting, implementing ideas, measuring success and failure, focussing on the outputs not the processes, spreading success) they can build new products and new revenue streams that at the moment seem like pipedreams.
Of course that may mean setting up things like the Second Life bureau – but learning the lessons of failure is just as important as reaping the rewards of success.
4. Twitter will face an existential crisis
I love Twitter. For me, and for many journalists, it’s a fantastic tool. Filled with ideas, ever-changing, and rumbustious.
But it’s got a problem. It’s just not growing. And with the failure to match other social networks in scale comes a problem with attracting advertising. And that’s not going to solved by adding Moments.
In 2016 I think Twitter will face an existential crisis. What is it for? What is its future? How will it grow? How will it make money for its investors? I don’t pretend to have the answers to these questions, and I suspect no-one knows the answers, but unless Twitter is able to find a new strategy it faces a future of ossification, stagnation and decline.
5. Managing the decline in TV news
2015 was a pretty good year for TV news.
Levels of trust remain high, viewership of the main bulletins has been broadly stable, the election was still fought on TV rather than online and some high profile transfers and relaunches have garnered positive headlines.
There is a long term problem for TV news. It’s not breaking through to younger viewers and, as older ones die off, it faces decline.
I expect that process to gather pace in 2016. Audiences will drop, perhaps not precipitously, but steadily. As viewers drift away from linear TV towards on-demand, the point of having an appointment to view TV news bulletin becomes less and less clear. And if younger viewers don’t pick up the habit of watching at 10pm – the format is doomed.
The TV companies recognise this risk. If James Harding was employed at the BBC in order to bolster its digital coverage, the always impressive Jonathan Munro was brought in to manage the TV coverage; to ensure that quality was maintained during a period of sustained decline in audience as the BBC experiments with different formats for its journalism.
This isn’t a prediction of imminent collapse but I think 2016 will be the year that the declining trend in audience and relevance for TV news becomes more clear.
So, five trend predictions for 2016. But, as they say, the only things certain in life are death and taxes.
Time to mark my own homework again.
Each year I make some predictions about the coming 12 months – here’s the ones for 2015 – so how did I do?
1. Podcasts are back in fashion.
Not much doubt about this one. You could hardly move for podcasts this year.
Whether it’s the return of Serial ; those that have taken inspiration from its format, such as this one by the media commentator Peter Jukes; to those that support brands and content marketing; to the long wait for a new edition of the on hiatus Bugle; media organisations rediscovered their love of podcasting.
The number of listeners seems to be up too – although perhaps not quite as dramatically as Serial’s astonishing figures would have you believe.
Are they making money? Almost certainly not.
Podcasts that involve reporting are expensive to make. Anything involving studios is expensive too.
But where there’s audience, advertising will follow.
And the old stager The Game, which I set up at The Times back in 2006, is still drawing audience and cross-sold advertising.
2. The TVisation of the web
Have TV companies taken on digital and made it their own in 2015?
For the most part, the answer is no.
TV companies still continue to treat digital as an upstart child that will eventually accept discipline.
And digital native products continue to eat TV’s lunch.
Take the BBC’s strategy of allowing Netflix to licence its back catalogue. Nuts! Netflix has built a business on its content and now looks like a serious competitor.
That’s short term gain for long term pain.
But there are glimmers of interesting experimentation – the millennial targeting AJ+ service has found an audience with sassy video takes on news stories.
And, of course, there is the fact that digital native publishers such as Buzzfeed and Vice want to be TV broadcasters too.
Perhaps they can find a lean-back experience to match the legacy TV organisations in 2016 and inject some much needed life into the sector.
3. Towards a sustainable future for papers
Scale has been the buzzword for newspaper publishers in 2015.
But it’s a far from consistent picture.
News UK admitted defeat with The Sun’s paywall and decided to go free. The Times still remains behind the wall, at least for now. There’s some speculation that it too will ditch the paywall. I suspect that would be a mistake. A solid revenue and a loyal audience will have continuing value in the years ahead.
Small steps then, but nonetheless steps towards the future.
4. The content bubble deflates
Up to a point, Lord Copper.
It has been a tough a year in the content business. Swamped by clickbait and repetitious stories audiences have sought better quality content.
Ten years ago everybody wanted to be in aggregation – turns out there’s not much of a future there.
And there’s no doubt that some of the valuations on today’s star start-ups look frothy too.
Take a look at Buzzfeed. It’s a going concern, it made $7 million in 2013. But this year, NBCUniversal bought a $200 million dollar stake at a valuation of $1.5 billion.
Buzzfeed has been investing heavily in editorial and, specifically, video. It sees itself as a key news and entertainment brand for the future.
But NBCUniveral’s making a big bet based on little grounded evidence.
Let’s call it a half.
5. The first UK-wide digital election
All the parties embraced social media for this election. You couldn’t move for Twitter argument, Facebook videos and a roar of furious agreement.
What was curious though was just how limited its impact appears to have been.
There seem to have been two main issues: trust and the self-reinforcing nature of social networks; we follow accounts that publish things we like and unfollow things we don’t.
Over time the cumulative effect creates a bubble impenetrable by news that doesn’t reinforce our prejudices. And if, by chance, we do encounter any it is dismissed as a result of cognitive dissonance.
That’s a lesson politicians need to learn quickly. Especially those, such as the Labour leadership, who want to cut the mainstream media from their communications strategy.
All up, I reckon that’s three and a half out of five. Not bad.
Predictions for 2016 to follow.
Here are the top five most popular posts from 2015 on my blog.
No standout post this year, unlike last year’s On John Oliver quitting The Daily Show, (7th most popular story this year) but a steady amount of traffic to all.
Search terms are no longer that interesting a resource, with so much of Google’s searches now encoded. But still a steady amount of traffic looking for information about the former Deputy Editor of ITV News, Richard Zackheim.
A steady if not spectacular year – perhaps not surprising given the paucity of my posting. Must try harder next year.