It has become something of a habit for me to post a few New Year’s predictions for the coming 12 months.
You can see previous efforts here, here and here.
So, what is ahead for 2017?
1.TOO. MUCH. VIDEO.
There is a glut of terrible video available online.
Driven by higher CPMs and the improved user experience provided by faster broadband and 4G phones, publishers have piled into video in a big way.
But too much of it is just rubbish.
Poorly produced and with little thought given to user experience, much online video exists merely to serve terrible 30-second pre-roll ads.
There are honourable exceptions but they are few and far between.
Even YouTubers are seeing a drop off in views.
Supply outstripping demand also showed up as an issue in this year’s Reuters Institute Digital Report.
The top reason for not watching a video – “I find reading quicker and more convenient”. Obviously.
But this isn’t about users, this is about producers and publishers.
They want eyeballs on content and are prepared to throw out any old crap in order to grow monthly streams.
And the worst, absolute worst, examples of this can be seen on Facebook Live.
Journalists have flocked to make live videos watched by an audience so small it is effectively nobody and have turned out the most godawful tripe along the way.
Even broadcasters, for whom there is absolutely no excuse, have managed to create amateurish, boring, pointless live content.
Please, all of you, stop it now before it is too late.
Live social video is an incredible tool – some of the stories being told are revelatory and revolutionary.
But stop turning out pointless lives for a few dozen people.
Surely by this point we must realise that behind-the-scenes video or extended interviews are the lowest common denominators of digital story-telling.
If you didn’t put it in your main story, what makes you think anyone wants to see the rubbish left on the cutting room floor?
So, here’s the prediction.
Over-supply will cause video CPMs to crash, forcing publishers to make tough decisions about whether to concentrate on quality or quantity.
Most will continue to put out rubbish for increasingly poor returns.
But smart publishers will focus on building dedicated audiences with targeted high quality content with a long tail.
2. Facebook grows up
Fake news and how to tackle it is a hot topic at the moment.
The performance of fake stories in the final weeks of the U.S. Presidential election has put the issue front and centre.
There has been a lot of talk about the importance of more fact-checking, more on the ground reporting, less comment and fewer paid talking heads.
That’s all well and good – much of it is a welcome recommitment to core journalistic values.
But the essential problem is that the distribution method of choice – Facebook – doesn’t feel it has any duties to its news consumers.
Mark Zuckerberg has made it clear that he thinks Facebook is a tech company, not a media one.
That may be true, up to a point.
But in the end, if users lose trust in material they see on Facebook then it is Facebook that will suffer.
That means the company is going to have to start taking its responsibilities to users more seriously.
And draining the swamp of fake stories, propaganda, misinformation and disinformation is a good place to start.
So, here’s the prediction – Facebook will hire editors to improve its fact-checking and act to cut back the wave of fake stories as the start of a process of acknowledging its position as a world leading mass-media company.
3. AI in the newsroom
Smart newsroom products are coming.
We have already started to see experiments and roll-out of automated writing.
That will continue.
But we will also see more use of machine learning in newsgathering and production too.
During the past 12 months I have been providing some advice to a Silicon Valley startup looking at how AI can be implemented in the newsroom.
UGC verification and social newsgathering are obvious places to start, using machine learning to parse huge amounts of data.
It doesn’t mean all of us journalists are going to be replaced by robots.
At least, not yet.
But 2017 will start to see more use of automated and smart products in the production of news, freeing reporters to work on adding value to the basic commodity of information.
4. Peer to peer becomes a peer
Snapchat has become the latest social media platform for journalists to embrace.
Early adopters have seen big returns – Buzzfeed has suggested that a fifth of its total traffic comes from Snapchat Discover.
But it has really only been publishers with heavy footprints in the U.S. and UK that have seen big returns.
That is set to change in the coming year.
As Twitter struggles with open messaging, expect peer-to-peer and closed group chat to grow faster.
And news publishers will want a slice of the pie.
I ran a number of strategy sessions for digital publishers across Africa and southern Asia during the summer.
It was striking how many of them thought WhatsApp with its huge install base was a potential audience driver.
They won’t be alone.
In 2017 expect to see more and more publishers experiment with peer-to-peer and personalised news to phones.
5. What is already hard just gets tougher
2016 was a great year for news reporting.
Taken in the round, audiences have never been larger, we had unmatched international reach, and stories of weight and importance.
But the business of news continues to get harder.
It has become clearer that a business strategy based on scale cannot deliver financial security.
And we’ve all had to get used to the guilt-tripping begging notes asking for more money.
As the impact of Brexit decelerates the British economy, trying to make a media business sustainable via free content and advertising at scale is going to become more difficult.
Smart publishers have already added other revenue streams to their business strategies.
2017 is going to be a year of hard decisions that have already been deferred too long.
More publishers will embrace paywalls, cutting costs through reduced editorial staff, and the decision point for newspapers on when to stop the presses will inch closer.
How bad this gets will depend on the scale of Brexit’s economic shock.
If it triggers a full-blown recession, Shane Smith’s oft-quoted but never quite materialised bloodbath will come to pass.
Publishers can future-proof themselves if they embrace solid business plans with diversified revenue streams, and produce content audiences value enough to pay for.
Otherwise they risk being cartwheel makers in the age of the motorcar.
Five predictions for the coming year – let’s see if my track record for accuracy shows any sign of improvement in 12 months’ time.