Media predictions for 2016

2016 desktop calendar

What does the coming year hold for the media and what will the impact be on news and journalism?

2015 was a year of enormous change, and there’s no reason to expect 2016 to be any different. So, here are five trends I think will define the next 12 months.

1. Ad-blockers will go mainstream

The current status quo for digital advertising in media cannot continue.

Advertising is too intrusive. Splash screens, auto-playing video, and ads that scroll the screen are ruining the user experience.

On a desk-top this can be annoying but for mobile users it can destroy the user’s relationship with the publisher.

I’ve lost count of the number of times I have left an Independent article without reading it on my iPhone because the splash screen can’t be easily removed.

And now I don’t bother reading them at all.

This is no longer a niche experience – mobile is how people consume digital content. If your mobile experience is poor, you will lose audience.

The uptake in ad blockers has increased during the past couple of years. Early adopters have been using them to tailor their internet experience. 2016 will be the year their usage goes mainstream and the impact for publishers will be immense.

Business plans at almost all major publishers are based on delivering eyeballs to ads – even at those who also have a subscription strategy.

If the relationship between content and advertising breaks, then a new settlement will have to be found. Either by denying access to users of ad blockers, finding new forms of advertorial, or by publishers finding a way to manage their advertising in a way that is meaningful and useful for users.

If they can’t they risk being swept away.

2. A choice to make: destination vs distribution 

The content business is going to get a lot tougher in 2016.

The watchword of 2015 has been scale. Those that have it, want to retain it. Those that don’t, want to get it.

As the content bubble continues to deflate some publishers will go to the wall, others will sell up. Consolidation will be a key factor in 2016.

But the key decision for publishers will be whether or not to pursue a destination or distribution strategy.

Here’s the thing: when I talk to students about where they get their news, they invariably say from Twitter or Facebook. Of course, when you dig into this they actually get it from a publisher who is using social media to disseminate their content. But users don’t necessarily distinguish between the publisher and the distributor.

Brand and brand values don’t appear to survive the transition to social media. And that means users treat all information as being of equivalent value.

Look at the rise of fake news sites that publish stories simply to get eyeballs to their sites – how often are people taken in by them? Even journalism students, who should know better, are sometimes fooled.

Publishers have to decide where they want to focus their attention – destination or distribution?

The received wisdom of the past few years has been to emphasise the importance of being where your audience is.

But Netflix didn’t build its business on YouTube.

Why should publishers, so keen to take up Facebook Instants, build their business on other people’s platforms? Give up your brand, give up your revenue streams, give up your platforms, and you give up your business.

3. Innovation will move to the heart of the newsroom

Media businesses are generally pretty poor at innovation – as this excellently argued article by the Wall Street Journal’s Neal Mann explains.

All of us who’ve worked in jobs where we’ve tried to shake-up the existing way of doing things have encountered the same issues. Resistance to change, a culture that demands instant results driven by delivery to daily deadlines, a veneration of tradition at the expense of experimentation.

That has to change and I think newsroom managers will have to bite the bullet in 2016 and create bespoke innovation units.

Journalism and journalists will survive but if the media businesses of today want to have a future they need to embrace innovation as a process rather than always trying to copy ideas from others.

And that means experimenting with everything. Cool stuff can be done with virtual reality, 360° video, and automation. And who knows what else is around the corner? Who would have predicted in the first internet boom that mobile would be key technology of the future? The key question is how can these things be turned into innovative systems that will deliver consistently for users in the future?

If publishers take a structured and strategic approach to this, (experimenting, implementing ideas, measuring success and failure, focussing on the outputs not the processes, spreading success) they can build new products and new revenue streams that at the moment seem like pipedreams.

Of course that may mean setting up things like the Second Life bureau – but learning the lessons of failure is just as important as reaping the rewards of success.

4. Twitter will face an existential crisis

I love Twitter. For me, and for many journalists, it’s a fantastic tool. Filled with ideas, ever-changing, and rumbustious.

But it’s got a problem. It’s just not growing. And with the failure to match other social networks in scale comes a problem with attracting advertising. And that’s not going to solved by adding Moments.

In 2016 I think Twitter will face an existential crisis. What is it for? What is its future? How will it grow? How will it make money for its investors? I don’t pretend to have the answers to these questions, and I suspect no-one knows the answers, but unless Twitter is able to find a new strategy it faces a future of ossification, stagnation and decline.

5. Managing the decline in TV news

2015 was a pretty good year for TV news.

Levels of trust remain high, viewership of the main bulletins has been broadly stable, the election was still fought on TV rather than online and some high profile transfers and relaunches have garnered positive headlines.

But….

There is a long term problem for TV news. It’s not breaking through to younger viewers and, as older ones die off, it faces decline.

I expect that process to gather pace in 2016. Audiences will drop, perhaps not precipitously, but steadily. As viewers drift away from linear TV towards on-demand, the point of having an appointment to view TV news bulletin becomes less and less clear. And if younger viewers don’t pick up the habit of watching at 10pm – the format is doomed.

The TV companies recognise this risk. If James Harding was employed at the BBC in order to bolster its digital coverage, the always impressive Jonathan Munro was brought in to manage the TV coverage; to ensure that quality was maintained during a period of sustained decline in audience as the BBC experiments with different formats for its journalism.

This isn’t a prediction of imminent collapse but I think 2016 will be the year that the declining trend in audience and relevance for TV news becomes more clear.

So, five trend predictions for 2016. But, as they say, the only things certain in life are death and taxes.

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BBC’s Robert Peston moving to ITV?

 

A great scoop for The Radio Times – it understands the BBC’s Economics Editor, Robert Peston, has been offered the job of Political Editor of ITV News.

He’s said to be making a decision this week – to poach him would be quite a coup for Geoff Hill and Tim Singleton. Peston’s one of the BBC’s most recognisable and trusted reporters.

It’s clear from his recent interviews that Peston has been feeling increasingly restless and the opportunity to report on politics from a premier position at a broadcaster is no doubt attractive.

But, as I’ve previously argued, I think there needs to be more diversity in the roles of political editor. Clearly it’s not the only the issue, but does ITV want to be the only major UK broadcaster with a middle-aged white man fronting their political coverage?

I also can’t help feeling, given ITV’s target audience, the cerebral Peston might not be the ideal person to communicate policy to the viewer.

And perhaps that means Peston should be cautious too.

He doesn’t need career advice  from me, but perhaps he should consider how successful or not some of the big name BBC to ITV transfers have been. The path to Gray’s Inn Road may be well-trodden but so is the road back to New Broadcasting House.

Still, I’ve argued before that part of what an Editor wants to achieve from appointing a new Political Editor is to make a statement about the news service’s positioning, garner positive headlines and deliver impact. On that basis alone hiring Robert Peston would be a success; it’s a bold and audacious move.

Who will be the new Political Editors of BBC and ITV News?

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They’re changing the guard at the Palace of Westminster.

After 10 years as political editors of BBC News and ITV News respectively both Nick Robinson and Tom Bradby are off to become presenters. Nick on Radio 4’s Today programme, Tom on ITV’s News at Ten.

The political editor of a TV (and these days digital) news service is a unique position in the broadcast firmament. Reporter, pundit, political anorak, celebrity, workaholic,  and conduit between government and company – the roles it encompasses are varied and subtle. It requires a sophisticated skill set to do the job well.

So, who’s in the running for two of the top jobs in British news?

As I’ve argued before these roles have for too long been awarded to middle-aged, white men. And the two deputies, James Landale and Chris Ship,at BBC and ITV respectively, fit that demographic. Both are competent and well respected, either would be a safe pair of hands.

But the deputy never gets the top job.

If you’re James Harding or Geoff Hill you want your appointment to make waves, garner headlines, perhaps bring in fresh blood and say something about your positioning of your news brand.

And I’d say that also rules out Sky News’s Joey Jones.

I’d say the most eligible candidates are all women. For either channel the interview short-list could look something like this:

Newsnight’s Laura Kuenssberg, Emily Maitlis and Allegra Stratton – all rising stars with serious clout, they may well want to take on the challenge while leaving Newsnight to head towards oblivion.

The BBC’s Lucy Manning – a well respected political journalist at ITV and Channel 4 before heading to the BBC, she’s got the Westminster chops. Crucially she’s also close to Head of Newsgathering, Jonathan Munro.

Channel 4’s Cathy Newman – a previous life with the FT and as a political correspondent means she’s got the experience. But with Jon Snow rapidly approaching 70 perhaps she might feel her name is firmly in the running to be lead presenter at Channel 4.

And as an outside bet, especially for ITV News, I’d look at the former political editor of The Observer, Gabby Hinsliff.

One final thought: Evan Davis has never really appeared comfortable at Newsnight. Could this be a way back into the mainstream of news?

Top posts of 2014

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One year into this blog, and that’s about 358 days longer than any previous blog I’ve attempted, here’s the top five performing posts of the last year.

1. On John Oliver quitting The Daily Show

2. Channel 4 News live in Tottenham

3. Who’s making great online video?

4. Why Al Jazeera English needs to think again about digital news

5. Behind the scenes at Al Jazeera

The John Oliver post was the runaway winner, thanks to retweets by Andy Zaltzman and loyal Buglers around the world.

The online video comparison did well on Linkedin. I also tried reposting a few things on Linkedin but there didn’t seem to be much traction. More inspirational business leadership blogging required for cut through there.

With Google implementing HTTPS searches, search terms are no longer a hugely interesting resource using WordPress’s native analytics. But the most searched term of the last year was unquestionably Richard Zackheim, the new Deputy Editor of ITV News. Relatively little has been written about him so my short blog welcoming his appointment performs absurdly well on Google. Still, I’ll take the glory where I can get it…

 

Reasons to be cheerful about the future of news

M+J

A couple of weeks back I hosted a Q&A session at The University of Northampton with ITV News’s Head of Digital, the redoubtable Jason Mills.

Unlike many in the media, he was cheerful and upbeat about the future of news – even going so far as to tweet me this after the session:

That reflects my own view.

Last year, when I was applying for jobs lecturing in journalism, I spent a lot of time telling anyone who would listen that there’s never been a better time to be a journalist. The entire industry is being remade, rule-books ripped up, received wisdom over-turned. People throughout the media are comparing the digital revolution to the invention of the printing press. New companies are being set up, experiments are being carried out, reputations are being made.

Of course, things don’t look so rosy if you’re a middle-aged hack on a newspaper. Innovation and disruption are exciting things to do, but not so comfortable to have done to you. As George Brock from City University has outlined in his relentlessly optimistic “Out of Print: Newspapers, journalism and the Business of News“, it’s the people who repeatedly throw the spaghetti against the wall who are going to create the new publishing platforms and maybe some of them will strike oil too. For those dazzled by the pace of change, institutionally or personally unable to react, it will be all too easy to be over-taken by the pace of change.

But I think there’s reason to be optimistic. For some time it’s been fashionable to predict the rise of the individual journalistic brand. The reporter or columnist who becomes bigger than the institution they work for. Recent moves in the United States suggest that time has arrived and that journalists like Glenn Greenwald, Ezra Klein and David Pogue are now able to command significant value to transfer to digital start-ups, bringing their cachet with them.

The Pew Research Center has published some new data looking at the size of the digital native news market. It looks encouraging, these are significant editorial departments. And as Buzzfeed’s Jonah Peretti has made clear, these are organisations with significant editorial ambitions which stretch far beyond 28 Devastating Truths about Adulthood Nobody Ever Tells You.

It’s a fascinating time. Both to be a journalist and to be a journalism teacher.

But, as one former ITN colleague tweeted me earlier:

Still that is another story….

ITV’s special pleading to parliament

Interesting story on The Guardian about ITV calling for top slicing of the licence fee.

ITV wants a fund set up, allowing broadcasters to bid for funds to support their news operations.

It’s an interesting argument – the actual submission to parliament is very interesting.

ITV points out it spends £100 million a year on news. Sounds like a lot, but it’s trifling compared to the BBC.

As anyone who’s looked into this knows, there’s very little publicly available information about how much the BBC spends on news. The £45 million figure is often quoted – but that’s merely the operational costs of the BBC News Channel. You also need to add in newsgathering, BBC World, and Nations and Regions plus the costs of the bulletins, Newsnight and BBC Breakfast. And that’s just TV – what about radio new, 5 Live and the World Service?

The actual figure for news could easily be ten times what’s spent on the news channel.

But the really stand out stat for me was the BARB quote:

each adult watched an average of around 114 hours of national or international news on television in 2012, of which around 80% was on the BBC. The next closest is ITV with 13% share of viewing, with Sky News in third place with 6%.

 

That is a disaster for ITV.

Forget the comparison with the BBC for a moment, ITV is only recording twice as much news viewing as Sky News.  Sky News is a brilliant product – but it doesn’t deliver mass audiences and the viewership is notoriously fickle. It may well be that there’s more to that stat than meets the eye, and I’m going to have a look into it. But on first reading, it’s hard to under-estimate how badly it suggests ITV has mismanaged its news brand.

Perhaps it shouldn’t have canned the ITV News Channel.

New deputy editor for ITV News

A quick post on the appointment today of the excellent Richard Zackheim as Deputy Editor of ITV News. I worked with Zackers on a number of ITN services, most notably at the ITV News Channel where he was a talented programme editor. He’s personable, decisive with an acerbic wit. I think he’ll do well back at ITV.

I think it’s fair to say his appointment was a surprise. Even ITN seem to have managed to put out a press release without a photograph of Zackers. Hopefully it’ll manage to rectify that for the Media Guardian article.

So, Geoff Hill begins to reshape ITV News in his image, bringing across a trusted lieutenant from Channel 5 News. I’ve no inside scoop on who else was in the running for the role, but I suspect the changes at ITV sparked by Geoff’s appointment still have some way to run. There’s a number of people who will feel Zackers has leap-frogged them and may decide to go. His predecessor, Jonathan Munro, now over at BBC News may be about to take some calls.